January 5, 2017

A repeal of key provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) could lead to significant economic disruption and substantial job losses in every state, according to new research. In 2019 alone, 2.6 million people could lose their jobs. These losses could rise to nearly 3 million positions in health care and other sectors by the year 2021, says this first-of-its-kind study. The study, from the Milken Institute School of Public Health at the George Washington University and The Commonwealth Fund, examines the impact of a potential January 2019 repeal of two parts of the ACA: the federal premium tax credits that help low- and moderate-income people purchase insurance on the health insurance marketplaces (also known as exchanges) and federal support for Medicaid.  Authored by Leighton  Ku and his colleagues Erika Steinmetz, Erin Brantley and Brian Bruen, this analysis is the first to suggest that the effects of repealing the ACA would extend well beyond the loss of health insurance and access to health care for millions of Americans. Repeal would also trigger large reductions in employment and state economic growth.

The study  was supported by a combination of funds from The Commonwealth Fund, the Geiger Gibson/ RCHN Community Health Foundation Research Collaborative and the Milken Institute SPH.

Repealing Federal Health Reform: The Economic and Employment Consequences for States is available here, via the Commonwealth Fund: http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2017/jan/repealing-federal-health-reform

A longer version of the report, The Economic and Employment Consequences of  Repealing Federal Health Reform: A 50 State Analysis, is  posted here